Second order effects

Trace the effects of this decision past the one I intend.

Decision: WHAT CHANGES.
Intended effect: WHAT I WANT.
Who is affected: GROUPS, and how each is currently measured or paid.

Three layers.

First order. The direct effect, including the ones I did not mention.
Second order. What happens because of the first order effects,
especially how each affected group changes its behaviour once it
understands the new rule. Give the mechanism, not just the outcome: who
does what differently, and why it is rational for them.
Third order. What follows from that, where it is reasonably traceable.
Stop where it becomes speculation, and say where you stopped.

Then two sections that matter more than the layers.

How it gets gamed. If I am measuring something new, name the cheapest
way to satisfy the measure without doing the work. Somebody will find
it, so it may as well be now.
What to watch. Two or three observable signals that would tell me a
second order effect has started, each with where it would show up
first.

Be concrete about mechanisms. Skip anything that is just a restatement
of the decision.